Why does the CTI industry struggle with communicating uncertainties?

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Presented at hack.lu 2023 by

Ondra Rojcik

Even reputable vendors sometimes have a hard time consistently communicating uncertainties in a single report. This talk will highlight the challenge at the individual analyst level of working with uncertainties and communicating them. Words of Estimative Probability (WEP) and confidence levels, which address intelligence gaps, assumptions, and conclusions, may appear abstract and difficult to grasp for individuals with technical backgrounds who have transitioned to CTI from working with concrete facts. The presentation will explore various approaches to communicating uncertainties, showcasing their respective advantages and disadvantages for different types of threat report consumers.